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Introduction and Context
Youth and Urbanism is a youth-led, Nairobi-based nonprofit organization founded in 2020 and officially registered in 2022, dedicated to empowering young people to shape sustainable, inclusive cities that prioritize children and youth. Operating primarily in Kenyan urban informal settlements like Mathare, Kibera, and others, the organization addresses intersecting crises such as climate change, gender inequalities (particularly in caregiving and unpaid labor for women and girls), disaster vulnerability (e.g., floods, fires, and pollution), economic disparities, and the exclusion of marginalized youth from urban decision-making and planning processes.
Kenya's rapid urbanization has led to over 60% of Nairobi's population living in informal settlements, where youth (aged 18-35) face high unemployment (often exceeding 40%), limited access to education and skills training, water scarcity, poor sanitation, energy insecurity, and heightened climate risks. Women and girls bear disproportionate burdens, including unpaid care work exacerbated by environmental degradation. By 2026-2030, projections indicate further urban growth due to rural-urban migration and climate pressures, potentially worsening flooding, food insecurity, and social exclusion. Youth and Urbanism's work draws from three years of frontline experience in these settlements, including youth-led humanitarian responses to disasters and river restoration projects.
This updated Theory of Change (ToC) builds on the organization's draft, incorporating best practices from similar youth development frameworks (e.g., The Youth Café's emphasis on multi-level changes and partnerships, Restless Development's focus on youth-led climate justice and empowerment, and the Safe and Inclusive Cities example's integration of gender transformation and adaptive risk management). It adopts a logic model mapping from inputs to long-term impact, with enhanced focus on strategic pillars: Youth Development and Urban Environment, Climate Change and Humanitarian Response, Gender Equality and Inclusion, and Child Rights and Protection. Assumptions, risks, and indicators are refined for adaptive management, ensuring alignment with SDGs 5 (Gender Equality), 11 (Sustainable Cities), 13 (Climate Action), and youth-inclusive principles.
By 2030, youth (aged 18-35), children, and marginalized groups (especially women and girls) in Kenyan urban informal settlements live in safe, resilient, and inclusive communities that prioritize climate justice, equitable caregiving, participatory urban planning, and access to opportunities, reducing vulnerability to disasters and fostering self-sufficiency.
Youth in urban informal settlements have untapped potential to drive social cohesion, resilience, and sustainable development, as demonstrated by Youth and Urbanism's past initiatives like the Mathare River Restoration and Voices for Just Climate Action. If we strengthen their capacities through skills training, innovation hubs, and networks; promote gender-transformative norms; foster collaborations with local authorities, CSOs, and private sectors; and integrate humanitarian responses with long-term climate adaptation, then youth-led groups can co-create greener, safer settlements. A key hypothesis is that addressing the climate-care nexus (e.g., how floods exacerbate women's caregiving burdens) requires deliberate social cohesion efforts, including partnerships with entities like Hivos (under VCA) and local governments, to amplify youth voices and influence policies.
This hypothesis translates into outcomes aligned with strategic pillars, emphasizing youth as agents of change rather than beneficiaries.
Empowered youth lead resilient, inclusive, and sustainable urban communities in Kenya, where climate justice, gender-equitable caregiving, and participatory planning improve quality of life, reduce disaster vulnerability by 50%, and ensure self-sufficiency for marginalized groups, inspiring scalable models across Africa.
Rationale: This aligns with Youth and Urbanism's vision of cities safe for children and youth, contributing to SDGs and building on successes like youth-led river cleanups and humanitarian aid in Mathare.
Medium-term systemic shifts in behaviors, policies, and capacities:
60% of youth in targeted settlements lead urban planning initiatives, resulting in 20+ youth-initiated projects (e.g., satellite farms for food security and sustainable transport advocacy).
Communities achieve 75% resilience to shocks, with youth leading responses to floods/fires, reducing losses by 45% through co-created solutions like disaster mapping apps.
Gender norms evolve, with men/boys assuming 35% more caregiving roles; policies integrate care considerations, reducing SGBV and unpaid labor burdens for women/girls by 40%.
Children in settlements access quality education and safe spaces, with 80% protected from violence and environmental hazards via programs like Urban Home School.
At least 7 policy reforms (e.g., budget allocations for green infrastructure) incorporate youth recommendations; a network of 30+ youth-led groups collaborates for advocacy and knowledge exchange.
Urban youth shape public debates on just transitions, with increased funding and platforms for climate-resilient solutions responsive to local needs.
Tangible deliverables as building blocks:
5 annual reports on climate-care intersections (e.g., expansions of "Climate and Care"); innovation hubs equipping 3,000 youth with tools for urban solutions.
6,000 youth, women, and men trained in disaster response, urban planning, entrepreneurship, and gender-sensitive caregiving; certifications issued via programs like the Entrepreneurship Challenge.
60+ workshops, festivals (e.g., Climate Justice Arts), and campaigns engaging 20,000 residents; digital platforms (e.g., Urban Online Media) sharing stories.
10 policy briefs, toolkits, and apps (e.g., for river restoration and humanitarian mapping) disseminated to stakeholders.
Joint pilots with partners (e.g., Hivos, local governments) for green infrastructure in 15 settlements, including satellite farms and sustainable transport initiatives.
Phased actions drawing from proven approaches like advocacy, civic education, humanitarian action, innovation, and partnerships:
Conduct baseline assessments in expanded settlements (e.g., Kibera); launch updated Climate and Care initiatives with community research; pilot youth-led humanitarian responses and men-in-care trainings.
Scale trainings via Research Hub and Think Tank; run advocacy campaigns (e.g., policy petitions) and entrepreneurship challenges; foster networks through digital forums and volunteer programs.
Evaluate/replicate models (e.g., Mathare River Restoration); integrate tech (e.g., GIS for urban mapping); lead coalitions for policy influence, including SRHR integration.
Activities emphasize youth co-creation, such as mapping violent hotspots for SGBV advocacy and promoting green enterprises like waste-to-fuel conversion.
40-60 staff/volunteers, including settlement youth; expertise from partners like UNRISD and Hivos.
$1.0M from grants (e.g., IDRC, Oxfam, crowdfunding); 35% to training, 25% to research, 25% to advocacy, 15% to operations.
Digital tools for data/mapping, settlement venues, access to climate data.
Leverage alliances (7+ partners) for co-funding and sharing.
The program adopts a gender-transformative approach, challenging norms by involving men/boys as change agents (e.g., via care trainings) and empowering women/girls economically/psychologically. Interventions promote equal participation, SRHR access, and safe spaces, addressing violence in public/work areas through a "right to the city" lens. Positive norms for gender equality in SRHR, opportunities, and environments will be fostered at individual, community, and policy levels.
Youth are partners, not beneficiaries, involved in all project cycles via mentorship, role modeling, and capacity building. Guided by principles like those from Restless Development (nurture, connect, celebrate, fund), youth conceptualize ideas, plan/implement activities, and provide feedback. Mechanisms include think tanks, innovation hubs, and platforms for collective action, ensuring diverse voices (e.g., from intersecting discriminations) address inequalities.
Build on 7+ existing partners (e.g., Hivos/VCA, Fundación Avina, Oxfam Canada, local governments) and add 5 new ones focused on SRHR and innovation. Support 150+ youth-led groups (existing and new) for implementation/monitoring, with cross-learning among CSOs. Partner assessments emphasize gender-transformative expertise and alignment with youth principles.
Ongoing quarterly assessments with partners for adaptability:
Mitigation: Flexible funds, insurance partnerships, youth-led preparedness platforms.
Mitigation: Elder-inclusive dialogues, success story showcases.
Mitigation: Diversify sources, build reserves; target $1M fundraising goal.
Mitigation: Neutral humanitarian focus, pre-emptive conflict prevention.
Mitigation: Community-led collection via apps.
Scenarios: For elections or pandemics, activate safety plans and cash-based support; for climate spikes, pivot to immediate responses while building long-term resilience.
Mixed-methods with annual reviews and biennial external evaluations. Indicators disaggregated by gender, age, settlement:
| Component | Indicator | Target (By 2030) | Data Source | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact | % improvement in quality of life/resilience scores | 50% increase | Household surveys | Biennial |
| Outcomes | # youth in leadership roles; % reduction in gender burdens | 3,000; 40% | Program records | Annual |
| Outputs | # trainings/reports delivered | 250 sessions; 15 reports | Attendance/logs | Quarterly |
| Activities | # engagements held | 150+ | Event reports | Monthly |
| Inputs | % budget from diverse sources | 75% | Financial audits | Annual |
Adaptive learning will test assumptions, incorporating feedback loops for youth-driven adjustments.
This Theory of Change positions Youth and Urbanism as a catalyst for youth-led urban transformation in Kenya, leveraging strategic pillars and partnerships to address crises in informal settlements. By 2030, it envisions empowered communities with policy legacies, scalable across Africa, through committed, accountable, and innovative leadership.